A Shrinking Power - 10 After The Brexit Referendum: An Economic, political and social assessment of the United Kingdom

A Shrinking Power – 10 After The Brexit Referendum: An Economic, political and social assessment of the United Kingdom

22 June 2026 Zespół IS Report 2 min

Czerwiec 2026 – Skurczone Mocarstwo – dziesięć lat po referendum brexitowym – bilans gospodarczy, polityczny i społeczny Zjednoczonego Królestwa

June 2026 – A Shrinking Power – 10 after the brexit referendum – an economic, political and social assessement of the United Kingdom

The tenth anniversary of the June 23, 2016 referendum has brought to the forefront questions about the political, economic, and social consequences of Brexit. A decade’s perspective allows us to move beyond a short-term assessment and subject these consequences to a thorough, balanced analysis. This report argues that the United Kingdom has not experienced the predicted decline but has instead undergone a process of gradual “shrinkage”: a sustained decline in its growth trajectory, a weakening of its position in the European economic system, and a transition from a significant player within a large bloc to a middle power operating independently.

In response to this challenge, the Sobieski Institute has prepared a report entitled “A Shrunken Power – Ten Years After the Brexit Referendum: The Economic, Political, and Social Assessment of the United Kingdom,” offering an in-depth, multi-dimensional analysis of the economic, political, and social consequences of Brexit. The study attempts to comprehensively address the consequences of the United Kingdom leaving the European Union.

The authors of the report are:
🔹Arkady Rzegocki
🔹Piotr Arak
🔹Przemysław Biskup
🔹Zuzanna Hebdzińska
🔹Aleksander Łaszka
🔹Anand Menon
🔹Julia Patorska

Reducing the benefits of EU membership solely to EU subsidies is a fundamental mistake. The true foundation of our growth – as research clearly confirms – is not monetary transfers, but unrestricted access to the single market. The case of Great Britain perfectly illustrates this. As a net contributor to the EU budget, the country should have benefited financially from Brexit. However, the opposite has happened: after being cut off from the common economic lifeblood, the British economy has significantly deteriorated. This is a fundamental lesson for Poland. We must remember it, especially now, when, as our country grows wealthier, the balance of payments and withdrawals from the EU budget will inevitably change.

Key recommendations from the report:

Brexit confirms that leaving the common market carries lasting economic costs.
Strategic changes require a long-term vision for the state.
Formal sovereignty does not replace economic interdependence.
Migration policy requires realism, not political slogans.
Europe needs Britain, and Britain needs Europe.
The Polish-British partnership should become one of the pillars of Polish European policy.
Poland should more actively utilize British soft power to strengthen its international position.
Poland and the United Kingdom should jointly maintain Western interest in Central and Eastern Europe and work to strengthen transatlantic ties.

From a Polish perspective, the most unexpected outcome of the decade was the strengthening of Polish-British relations, which have evolved into one of the closest strategic partnerships in Europe. It is based on a convergent threat assessment, defense and industrial cooperation, and a fundamental shift in the British perception of Poland—from a country associated primarily with migration to a key partner and co-creator of the continent’s security.